Explosion in China by 2000

by M. Altanbat

During President Clinton's visit to the People's Republic of China(PRC) in June 1998, the head of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), Jiang Zemin, declared "China has the right of existence and the right of development". This slogan has been appearing regularly in Chinese newspapers and magazines over the past several years but it's still a little curious that the leader of the CPC would use this slogan, especially since the whole world knows that no foreign country is threatening China's "existence" or " development".

In fact, the former enemies of China have either themselves collapsed into economic disarray or become supporters of China's economic development. The former USSR is in a deep crisis, barely able to attend to its internal affairs, let alone worry about China. Former enemies Japan and Taiwan have invested huge amounts of capital into China, helping to spur economic development. India lacks the time or resolve to trouble China, particularly in view of the Kashmir situation. Bilateral relations between China and USA have improved and to date, the US has invested more than $36.8 billion into 2300 Chinese enterprises.

So who is Mr. Jiang speaking to? The perceived threat that has been worrying the Chinese doesn't come from any foreign country, but rather comes from internal problems that have been accumulating for many years. I will provide ten observations in the following paragraphs, which taken as a whole will support my contention that there will be a huge explosion in China before the year 2000 and neither the "wise guidance" of the CPC, or any other prominent leader will be able to rescue China from this inevitable explosion.

First, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has concluded that "The People's Republic of China has the capacity to feed at most 1.6 billion people." The minister of environment, Qiu Ge Ping has warned "There will be a huge explosion in China if the population surpasses 1.6 billion, China will collapse totally." According to the 4th official census, the population of PRC already had attained 1.3 billion! This count did not include the "illegal" children. It is a well-known fact that every family in PRC has the right to only one child. But many families conceal their other children from the authorities. By some estimates, there are now 120 million "illegal children" in China. Meanwhile, the increase in population of PRC is accelerating with great rapidity, even though Beijing carefully controls the birth rate. In fact, the true population of China has already attained the 1.6 billion mark.

Second, the arable lands of PRC occupy only 7% of the world's land surface, but need to feed 22% of the world's total population, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The per capita arable land ratio of the PRC is less than 0.1 ha. (including the territories of Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Eastern Turkstan which occupies 2/3 of the whole territory of PRC), 1/3 less than the world average and barely 1/10 of the USA. Because of the increasing population growth leading to physical expansion of urban cities and towns, the arable land area of the PRC is decreasing by 600,000 ha. every year! So, the PRC is increasingly unable to feed its 1.6 billion population and since 1994, has become the largest grain importer in the world.

Third, fresh water resources are being exhausted in the PRC. The per capita availability of water in China is 1/4 of USA's, and 1/7 of Russia's. As a result of poor environmental policies, the second largest river in China, the Huang He (Yellow River, is headed towards complete destruction. The majority of Chinese cities in the Northern region and maritime Provinces, Beijing, Tianjin, Xian, Qing Dao, Da Lian, Ning Bo, Xia Men, are all suffering from chronic shortages of water. The city of Tianjin brings drinking water from a distance of 200 km, Da Lian, 100 km; Qing Dao, 300 km. The underground aquifers feeding water to Beijing continue to decrease. The level is dropping by 1 meter every year. The per capita water consumption of Beijing is barely 1/6 of USA, and 1/3 of Russia. As a result of the depletion of underground water, Beijing is slowly sinking. The western and northwestern provinces of China suffer from lack of water even more than Beijing. These people struggle for even a little bit of drinking water, let alone bathing water.

Fourth, coal supplies, the major energy source in China are being exhausted. Consider the following table which shows the main sources of energy for China, Japan and the USA. Coal Petroleum Natural Gas China 70% 23% 3% Japan 15% 75% 3% USA 21% 43% 29% China depends on coal for 70% of its energy needs, whereas Japan and the US are relatively much less dependent on coal. This enormous dependence on coal, coupled with the fact that over the last 50 years, coal resources have been seriously depleted, puts China in a precarious position regarding energy needs and consumption for the near future. The massive use of coal has also created serious air pollution. The air in Beijing, Shanghai, Chong Qing and other cities contain high levels of CO2. The situation has turned critical, almost on the verge of serious health threats. The levels of CO2 in the air of China's cities has exceeded the safety norms by 20%-30%. In Shanghai, 2.43 men per 10,000 suffer from lung cancer! But with 70% of Chinese energy needs provided by coal, environmental pollution will increase since the energy demands cannot be satisfied by oil or gas. In addition, acid rain since 1982 (pH<5.6) in 28 cities of China is seriously affecting plant life. Chinese writer Cheng Yi has stated: " Every year China loses more than 10 billion yuan in damage due to the merciless pollution of the environment." Petroleum availability too has suffered. As a result of the huge flood this year, the Da Qing oil field enterprise, which produces 1/2 of all petroleum products in China suffered heavy damages. Nearly 1/3 of the oil wells filled with water and stopped working.

Fifth, the cities' and towns' industrial enterprises are dumping 76% of their waste effluents into rivers and lakes. In addition, 18 million small and mid size businesses in the countryside also are spilling their waste into the rivers and lakes. As a result, the flora and fauna of the rivers and lakes are on the verge of total annihilation. Five months of every year, the waters of the Huang Pu Jiang river near Shanghai turn slimy-green, and produce a loathsome stench.

Sixth, more than 530 state-owned enterprises are in an economically weak condition. Thousands of state-owned enterprises have gone bankrupt, and millions of workers were cast out on the streets. In addition, thousands of cadres have joined the unemployed as a result of the downsizing of many state ministries and government departments. At present, there are more than 20 million unemployed workers in China! This is in addition to the 200-300 million peasants who have left their native villages to seek their fortune in the cities. Experts conjecture that there will be 30 million unemployed workers in China before the year 2000. Unemployment has had a devastating effect on many Chinese families, some losing all hope of living. From January to April 1998, the number of suicides by unemployed workers in PRC increased by 25% as compared with the same period in 1997.

However, many Chinese people, particularly unemployed workers and cadres don't want the Beijing authority to play with their lives and categorically resist the policies of PRC. They are organizing meetings and demonstrations and are fighting for their own rights. Sometimes, the desperate unemployed workers launch attacks on government buildings or police stations. Between January 1998-May 1998, there were numerous demonstrations against the Beijing authority across 75 cities and towns of PRC. Force was used in 270 demonstrations and 90 demonstrations resulted in police action. More than 3500 people, about 280 policemen and soldiers were wounded or died in these demonstrations. Over 30 demonstrations had a strong political character, with slogans shouted such as "Dissolve the Communist Party of China!" "Down with socialism and communism!" " The Central Government resign down!" Today, free labor unions are organized everywhere in China though Zhong Nan Hai are severely prohibited.

Three months ago the Democratic Party of China was officially established, the goal of which is to destroy the communist regime. Everywhere in China, either in the countryside, or cities, millions of Chinese people oppose the policies of the Beijing authority and are fighting and rising up to demand their own rights. The former Chairman of the Congress of the All-Chinese People's Representatives of PRC Qiao Shi warned "The conditions and circumstances of rebellion and revolts have already formed in some provinces and regions. The explosion in China is ready almost. The Communist Party of China and Government are rotting. The cadres of high ranks are abusing their own power. The distance between rich and poor is increasing more and more. Truly, we push our people to the verge of rebellion."

On June 13, 1998, 81 permanent members of the Political Council of the Congress of All-Chinese People's Representatives had gathered to complete an urgent proposal to the Central Committee of CPC and the government of PRC warning "In the last few months, the millions of workers and cadres that have been cast out into the ranks of the unemployed may cause a large and grave revolt in society. That revolt will be very dangerous, even more than the 1989 Tian An Men square event unless we adopt effective and urgent measures to improve the current situation." In the beginning of June 1998, more than 50 former high ranking Party, Government and Army officers, now on pensions, wrote a letter to the Central Committee of CPC warning "The society and politics of China have been brought to a grave crisis with increasing unemployment. Now, our country is on the verge of total rebellion."

Seventh, the supreme authority, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has degenerated into a bloated, corrupt institution. Bribery is rampant among the high officials, and abuse of authority is common. Recently, a former member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of CPC, former mayor of Beijing, Cheng Xi Tong, was arrested and sentenced to 16 years imprisonment for embezzlement of state property. In the last few months, 87 high ranking officers of CPC resigned for reasons connected to corruption. On June 12, 1998 in the Central Committee of CPC, Jiang Zemin was forced to state "A fundamental change is occurring within the CPC. Today the CPC is degenerating completely. This is very true, a real danger which we must face. The CPC as an institution is rotten. Our party is sliding into total collapse." On July 13, 1998, the new Premier of China, Zhu Rong Ji, attacked the Beijing authority with "Our party, our government, court, procurators' officers, the customs, our army and police, all take part in the evil deed of smuggling and gaining vast profit ... I am sure China takes the first place in the world in the scale and openness of smuggling."

Eighth, the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) is also in a state of decay. Over the last 20 years, the PLA had had total authority to take part in the economy, in export and import. PLA had their own powerful companies and corporations. Many, if not most, PLA officers have an itchy palm always open for personal profit. Over the last year, 13800 Army officers were reprimanded or were expelled from their positions by the CPC due to reasons connected to corruption. Recently Jiang Zemin was forced to reduce the PLA's authority in the economy, causing discontent among the high officers of the PLA. In addition, conflicts between PLA and local administrations have arisen. In 1997, there were 1500 court cases pending between them! Resistance to military orders are on the increase within the PLA.. During July 1997-June 1998, 2570 occurrences of sabotage were reported, involving the wounding or death of more than 4500 officers and soldiers. It also caused more than 1 billion yuan in damages. General disenchantment and resistance to the CPC and the Chinese Government are increasing in the PLA more and more. The commander of the 46th division of PLA's 16th Army, near Chang Chong city in Ji Lin province, and 12 of his subordinate colonels were arrested in March 1998 and were shot immediately on the grounds that "they had attempted to organize a secret anti-Communist organization to prepare a rebellion". On June 12, 1998 a revolt was carried out by the Military Academy of PLA in the town of Shi Jia Zhuang, with the deaths of over 10 officers and students.

Ninth, the difference between the rich and the poor is increasing more and more. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Though thousands of millionaires were made in China over the last 20 years, most of their profits don't remain in China. The Chinese rich are sending their huge fortunes and capital abroad, to foreign banks, concerned with " What will I do when there will be another red revolution?" It is estimated that during the 80's, the amount of capital sent out of China was equal to the total of all foreign investments in China during that same time. The same pattern has continued through the 90's.

Tenth, the national liberation movements in Tibet, Eastern Turkistan and Inner Mongolia are gaining momentum and power. The peoples of Eastern Turkistan, Inner Mongolia and Tibet can't forget the grief and sorrow which they have experienced at the hands of the CPC and the Chinese colonialists over the past 50 years. More than 1,200,000 Tibetans, more than 1,000,000 Uighurs and Kazakhs, more than 1,000,000 Inner Mongolians were killed by the Chinese occupation. Their national cultures are being destroyed. Now, Tibetans, Eastern Turkistanis and Inner Mongolians all recognize fully that their motherlands are on the verge of total annihilation under the policy of genocide carried out by the CPC and Chinese Government, Unless they fight and rise up together for freedom and independence, shoulder by shoulder, the chances of any one of them succeeding is greatly diminished.

The time to step up the fight against the Chinese colonialists has come! The bell of freedom and independence is ringing! The battle flame for freedom is ready to take fire! The more brutally the Chinese occupiers suppress the non-Chinese peoples' freedom and independence, the more the movement for national liberation will burn and turn into a raging fire throughout Inner Mongolia, Eastern Turkistan and Tibet.

In conclusion, based on the preceding ten points outlining the social malaise infecting China in combination with the environmental and political devastation currently in process, I am convinced that there will be a huge explosion in China before 2000. This explosion could find expression in one of two forms: the first is that they will conduct an aggressive war against neighboring countries to reduce their own internal tensions, the second is that the social, economic and political fabric of China will dissolve leading to a collapse similar to what happened to the former Soviet Union. Who knows if it will be a peaceful dissolution? As a side note, the disastrous floods of 1998, unprecedented in Chinese history, have caused estimated damages in excess of 1.66 trillion yuans. More than 500 million Chinese people were affected by the flood, with many having nothing remaining, neither food, nor homes!